11 September 2018
JAPANESE
Pro-whaling groups in Japan insist that whale meat will be useful for food security.
Inflaming public anxiety for the future is an effective advertisement whether the theme is food, energy or diplomacy.
But is that true? Is it a realistic solution? Is it effective physically or economically? Who will it be helpful for except stakeholders in the Japanese whaling industry?
First, let's see how much whale meat production is possible by Antarctic whaling now.
Not only natural scientific knowledge but also effective social scientific management system is indispensable for the sustainable fishery.
The Japanese whaling industry had committed a serious crime of overcatching, violating regulations (including JARPAII, the previous "research whaling" in the Antarctic which was recognized as illegal by ICJ 4 years ago), and complicating the poaching.
Japan has failed in the sustainable management of fishery compared with other developed countries, and many of the fishery resources in the near sea have been depleted by overfishing.
Besides, Japan continues importing large amounts of ivory and living wild animals for pets such as slow loris or Asian short-clawed otter, and promotes extinction.
As there are such facts, and it is impossible to entrust the destiny of whales as global commons to Japan.
Here I assume forcibly that Japan has overcome all those problems and international agreement on RMS: Revised Management Scheme would be established and the whaling moratorium would be removed though it is unreasonable.
Japan had independently applied RMP: Revised Management Procedure to Antarctic minke whales when its population was temporarily estimated at 760,000.
Calculated catch quota was 1,445 to 4,490, on average it was 3,202. If applied to the currently agreed population of 515,000, it will be around 2,000.
This is a figure for the total number of inhabitants around the Antarctic Ocean, 6 areas in all.
Japan had been conducting commercial whaling in the past in Area IV and Area V on the Pacific side among these, so the catch quota would be about 1,000.
The production of whale meat based on this figure is 4,600 tons annually when conducting commercial whaling and research whaling in parallel, or 4,800 tons annually when commercial whaling only.
It is less than a thousandth of Japan's annual value of food abandonment despite being able to eat it yet.
It is merely about 37 grams per year per capita in Japan. A Japanese can eat only one Tatsuta-age; fried whale meat, for one year.
Even if Japan can conduct commercial whaling in the entire Antarctic ocean, it is
76 grams per person per year. A Japanese can eat only two Tatsuta-ages.
If Japan will send whaling fleets from Japan to the Indian Ocean side and the Atlantic side of the Antarctic Ocean, the cost will enormously increase because it is necessary to increase the amount of fuel and a new supply ship.
In addition, it is a premise that Japan can monopolize all available Antarctic whales.
What if a serious world food crisis comes?
The amount of whale meat per year per capita world's population in 2050 would be just 1 gram.
In a state of emergency that the world is confronted with the food crisis, 7 countries claiming Antarctic territorial rights, especially Australia, New Zealand, Chile and Argentina near Antarctica, will claim priority on whales in the Antarctic sea.
It would be more realistic that countries close to the Antarctic Ocean carry out whaling and use the products even though we consider enormous energy costs.
Who would accept that Japan in the Northern Hemisphere and sends the fleet burning a large amount of fuel oil to the Antarctic Ocean to monopolize all whales in the global food shortages?
Incidentally, Japan relies on fossil fuels (and uranium) from overseas for most of the energy like food.
It is increasingly difficult to raise the necessary oil to go roundtrip to the Antarctic Ocean for whaling in the global food shortages because nobody sells oil to such country.
It is also crazy tremendously to go to whaling in the Antarctic Ocean burning biofuel, which should be used as food, in the times of food shortage.
The only measure left for Japan is to buy whale meat from countries close to the Antarctic Ocean.
However, Japan with poor resources has nothing to provide to foreign countries during the food shortage.
Whale meat has no business with Japan's own food security unless unrealistic assumptions are met that Japan was the only country hit by the food crisis, famine did not occur anywhere in the rest of the world, countries that Japan imports food cannot be exported anywhere, oil can be imported without problems, economically it has enough room to buy for Japan.
Moreover, it can only supply 76 grams per year per capita.
It is 0.2 grams per day per capita and 0.2kcal in calories.
Consumed calories required for one adult per day is 2,000 kcal, so it is only a ten-thousandth of calories required.
It is a calorie that emphasizes first when a serious food crisis occurs.
Ironically, JWA: Japan Whaling Association advertise that whale meat is low in calories and healthy.
The calorie of whale meat is a half of the same weight of sardines, one-third of pork, a quarter of soybeans, a sixth of termites.
This is a fatal weak point as an emergency food in the times of food shortage.
In this way, Whale meat is the worst option in terms of food security. A far more realistic solution in case of food shortage is conversion to vegetable diet or insect diet.
Incidentally, Antarctic whales may be one of the potential options for emergency food at the time of food shortage for neighboring countries such as Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Argentina, and South Africa.
However, its biggest weakness for emergency food is that reproduction is very low as obvious from past tragedies by overcatching.
On the other hand, recent research has shown that whales increase ocean productivity.
As a result, it is more useful for humane food security to conserve whales and increase the fishery resources with high reproduction.
Does the Japanese Government itself believe that whale meat is really useful for food security?
MAFF: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries published a report on global food supply and demand outlook in 2012.
In this report, it is mentioned very optimistic predictions that;
"Global food production in 2050 is projected to reach 6.93 billion tons, increasing by 1.6 times from the 2000 level, exceeding the projected global population growth (1.5 times)." and
"In the baseline projections, Japan is expected to have the capacity to export rice in 2050 if the current rice production capacity is maintained, because demand is projected to decline due to population decrease."
While the world population growing, the Government sees that Japan's food demand would decrease as population declines and production of rice which is staple food would become surplus.
Japan is heavily dependent wheat and feed crops on imports from the US, Australia, Brazil etc. which are anti-whaling countries conflicting with Japan at the IWC (Of course, even if resuming commercial whaling cannot reduce their import dependence at all).
The Government also predicts that in the future competition over imports from those food exporting countries would be intensified with developing countries in Asia and Africa including some countries which support Japan's whaling at the IWC.
Therefore, it pointed out in the report that; "In order to eradicate hunger and improve nutrition globally, the projected situation will demand developing countries to constantly secure a large amount of food domestically."
There is no room for whale meat in food security in the future both Japan and the allies supporting it because whale meat can produce only a small amount and the cost is very high.
MAFF's Food Supply and Demand Forecast Report does not include only whale meat but marine products.
The extra-ministerial department of MAFF which is in charge of the fishery is JFA: Fisheries Agency, but the fisheries white paper by JFA does not predict and analyze any long-term marine product supply and demand trends except international prices trends for decade quoting FAO data.
Production, consumption, and import of fishery products in Japan have continued to decline sharply over the past decade.
A major factor that fishery production continues to decline in Japan is resource depletion by overfishing and a decrease in fishery workers.
However, JFA is just saying "Fish is good for health" in the white paper, and the attitude of seriously tackling the recovery of fishery production for food security in future cannot be seen.
- FY2016 Trends in Fisheries | FY2017 Fisheries Policy White Paper on Fisheries: Summary, JFA
As FAO's Report SOFIA: State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture reveals, about 30% of marine fishery resources in the world are overfished, 50% are being developed to the limit, and only 10% are in the proper range. Fisheries production in the world is expected to grow, but farming is the driving force. Only Japan among the major fishing countries is predicted to decrease by 11.9% by 2030.
- The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2018 | FAO
In fact, nearly half of the major stocks of fishery resources that JFA is subject to assessment are in a state of low level for many years.
Moreover, it is only a part of these major fishery target species that are estimated the amount of resources and calculated MSY: Maximum Sustainable Yield.
Nevertheless, the annual budget for Japanese fishery resources management and research has remained at 4.6 billion yen until 2018, which is lower than 5.1 billion yen spent on whaling measures.
The distorted distribution of fishery budget, which is overemphasized to the whaling measures unusually, by the Japanese Government obviously undermines Japan's food security.
MAFF has prepared a manual set for unexpected food security.
- Food Security | MAFF
- Emergency Food Security Guidelines | MAFF (Japanese text only)
Regarding marine products, it is described in the manual to convert feed for aquaculture to edible and thoroughly review ship speed and fleet composition, etc. in preparation for oil supply restriction.
However, the term "Whaling" or "Whale meat" never appears in this manual.
As mentioned above, the most important thing in the food crisis is the calorie.
Indeed, the Japanese Government itself says an important allocation to cereals and tubers in the Food Security Manual. It is no wonder that whale meat is not wanted.
SOFIA 2008 said that; "Intercontinental airfreight may emit 8.5 kg of CO2 per kilogram of fish transported. This is about 3.5 times that for sea freight and more than 90 times that from local transportation of fish where it is consumed within 400 kilometers of catch."
This means that deep-sea fishery has 25 times higher CO2 emissions than the case of the coastal fishery and local consumption.
- The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2008 | FAO
In my estimate, CO2 emissions per unit weight of whale meat are higher than those of other deep-sea fisheries and comparable to air transportation fishery products.
This figure is calculating only fuel consumption going and returning between the Antarctic Ocean and Japan.
Furthermore, the CO2 emissions are doubled by adding energy consumed by low-temperature freezing during transportation and inventory storage.
According to Japan's own Food Security Manual, Japan absolutely should not send a fleet to the Antarctic Ocean in the food crisis.
What is the most reasonable solution from the viewpoint of food security?
The basic is to increase the self-sufficiency rate.
It is better to have achieved a self-sufficiency rate of 100% or higher as much as possible at the ordinary time.
And it is important to maintain a good relationship with the country, which has agricultural production capacity, such as the US or Australia, for emergencies.
The Japanese Government understands it, though the specific policy has advanced to lower the self-sufficiency rate more and more.
In fact, EPA: Economic Partnership Agreement concluded between Japan and Australia has the following items.
Chapter 7: Food Supply
This Chapter affirms the importance of strengthening the stable and mutually beneficial relationship between Australia and Japan in trade in food. It provides for the Parties to consult with the other Party in the event of a foreseen significant decrease to supply of a food good designated as “essential food” in the accompanying annex (Annex 4). It seeks to limit the introduction or maintenance of prohibitions or restrictions on the exportation or sale for export of any essential food. It sets contact points to support investment in the food sector.
- Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement | AU GOV
- Summary of JAEPA chapters & annexes
- AGREEMENT BETWEEN AUSTRALIA AND JAPAN FOR AN ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP
Australia promises to support Japan's food security with the agreement more than any other country in the world.
Nevertheless, Australia is violated its right to the Antarctic Ocean, which is its inherent territory as well as the Senkaku Islands or Northern territories for Japan itself.
- Ultra double standard of Japan's diplomacy: Territorial disputes issue and Japanese research whaling
Furthermore, Japanese fisheries bureaucrats and pro-whaling Diet members boldly claim that whaling is for their own food security.
How good-natured country Australia is!
At least Australia should strongly protest against the fraudulent claim that Antarctic whale meat is necessary for Japan's food security.
Thanks to the US and whales, Japan was able to get out of serious food crisis after WWII.
Japan has now become one of the excessive eating giants to buy food from all over the world and to dispose of large amounts of food.
Nonetheless, Japan returns evil for good to whales, the US, and Australia. There is no such shameless country.